Just because fall break has arrived at Tulane doesn’t mean that there won’t be football. The Green Wave takes on UTEP this week at the Mercedes Benz Superdome, fresh off of a heartbreaking loss to Syracuse. Tulane showed more poise and resilience in that game than it had the rest of the season. Nonetheless, a last second field goal put Syracuse into the ‘W’ column, and leaves Tulane looking for a victory to stop the three game losing streaking they have fallen into.
Not unlike the Green Wave, the Miners are coming off of a tough loss of their own two weeks ago. After leading 25th ranked Houston 14-0, they allowed the Cougars to claw their way back into the game, eventually winning. The 49-42 shootout was certainly exciting.
The coming matchup features two sub-.500 teams, both of whom are looking to stop losing streaks. Let’s take a look at the numbers.
What we see is that the numbers are remarkably similar. UTEP is 42nd in the nation in passing, averaging 255.5 yards per game. The Green Wave is not far behind that, averaging 235.5 yards per contest, and ranked 55th in the category. A similar tale can be told with regards to the ground game. Tulane and UTEP are essentially even in this category, ranked 84th and 85th respectively, averaging just over 123 yards per game.
So clearly, the offenses are pretty evenly matched.
On the defensive side of the ball, the story again remains the same; Tulane and UTEP are hovering right around the same numbers. Tulane allows an average of 34.0 points per game, while UTEP allows 32.6. As would expect, these are not stellar defenses. In the turnover war, Tulane has the advantage though. With 6 interceptions to UTEP’s two, Tulane has a distinctly more ball-hawkish secondary than UTEP.
That said neither team has been wowing with their defensive play.
So where does that leave this matchup?
Tulane showed the kind of heart and enthusiasm that fans have been expecting from them all season against Syracuse. Look for the Green Wave to carry that energy into the matchup against UTEP. They know that this game is essentially a must-win if they want their already slim bowl chances to stay alive. The Miners won’t roll over though, that’s for certain.
UTEP’s offense is highly potent, and so Tulane will have to work hard on defense to contain them. It’s not a one-dimensional offense like Army was, so that should benefit Tulane’s defense. If they can transition the flashes of excellent play they showed against Syracuse into at least most of the game, Tulane has a good chance of winning this game.
Prediction:
I think Tulane is going to win this football game. It will probably be a shootout, but Tulane matches up nicely with UTEP. The numbers seem to indicate that UTEP has a slight advantage in the passing game, but they’ve also played a much softer schedule, which is saying something. Sophomore Orleans Darkwa is also finally starting to break out of the slump that plagued him early in the season, meaning that the offense can be more two-dimensional than it has been in past weeks. This should open things up for the passing game.
My prediction is 42-31 Tulane.
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