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| Tulane's Tarrant (from nola.com) |
Conference USA teams are now wrapping up their non-conference schedules, so things are about to get much more interesting in the rankings.
At the very least, we are starting to see the conference begin to separate a bit in these last few games of conference play. So without further adieu, we begin with...
12. Rice (3-9; W10 - 12th) - I've been waiting to use this since Christmas, but "Stink... Stank... Stunk..." pretty much describes what is happening with the Owls. They haven't won a game in almost a month. No sign that things will get any better once they open in-conference against Southern Mississippi.
11. Marshall (7-7; W10 - 7th) - Marshall suffered the biggest drop in the rankings. Once upon a time, the Thundering Herd were expected to challenge Memphis for an NCAA berth. Things have changed. Star DeAndre Kane is out, and the team has failed to figure out a game plan in his absence. A loss to Kentucky won't kill you, but getting smacked down by the Delaware State Hornets will. Marshall is looking like a falling star.
10. Tulsa (8-6; W10 - 11th) - Tulsa gets a slight bump because Marshall looks worse, but nothing much to say here. They took a drubbing at the hands of both Creighton and FSU. They added a close win against Buffalo (a 5-9 MAC team) to their resume. I'm guessing Tulsa's record will start to plummet once they hit the conference.
9. UAB (8-6; W10 - 10th) - UAB hasn't really done anything to hurt its case over the last couple of weeks... but it hasn't helped itself either. UAB captured an additional two victories over some bad competition: Northeastern and Georgia Southern. I'm not ready to move UAB up, really, in light of six pretty deserved losses. While UAB has played some competition, it has failed to show that it can contend against a competent team. That will end up hurting them.
8. East Carolina (8-4; W10 - 5th) - ECU's stock is also falling. After a solid start, they are starting to drop some ugly games, and there's no sign of stopping in conference play. Here's my personal favorite: an overtime home loss to the Campbell State Fighting Camels. Boom. ECU doesn't seem to have a lot under the hood, and I expect them to pay for it once they hit the better in-conference teams.
7. Southern Methodist (10-5; W10 - 6th) - After a 10-1 start, Larry Brown's Mustangs have come back to earth. Or Conference USA. Or somewhere. They took a loss to Wyoming, a team that is on the cusp of being ranked, so that's not terrible. A 2-4 record since Dec. 15 doesn't look very strong, however. Losses to Wagner and Rhode Island seem to be indicative of this team's problems.
6. Houston (10-2; W10 - 9th) - Houston, Houston, Houston... They boast a rare distinction of holding the best C-USA record and also being the second worst team in
Ken Pomeroy's rankings (at 192...). What gives? They've played nobody. And they have been challenged by weak competition (Texas Southern, Prairie Valley, etc.). I expect Houston to follow Tulane's 2011 trajectory: great non-conference play followed by a bunch of early losses in January. Then again... they keep winning, so it's tough to demote them.
5. UTEP (6-6; W10 - 8th) - UTEP is still moving on up. After taking a ranked UNLV to the wire and beating a rock solid Oregon team, UTEP hasn't stopped their resurgence. They smoked a Nebraska team that beat Tulane earlier this year. The down side? UTEP took an ugly loss to Colorado State this week that hurts their case a bit. Still a strong team that has some upside in conference play.
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| Memphis opens 2013 with a win over Tennessee |
4. UCF (9-4; W10 - 4th) - This is the weakest UCF team in recent memory. That said, no one is really making a case from below to take their spot. The Golden Knights took a loss to South Florida, completing the Florida trifecta of defeats against the Florida Gators, Miami Hurricanes, and South Florida Bulls. Not good. Their offensive efficiency is still solid while their defense continues to give up points to bad teams. UCF will need to re-establish itself in conference play if it wants some relevance this year.
3. Southern Mississippi (11-4; W10 - 2nd) - The way I see it, we have the top three teams and everyone else, right now. Since last ranking, USM lost to a good Wichita team and smoked a Morehead State squad that gave Kentucky some trouble, once upon a time. In a quirky scheduling move, Southern Miss finished 2012 with two exhibition games against junior college teams... Southern Miss will open its 2013 against Rice.
2. Tulane (12-3; W10 - 3rd) - This is the highest I have put the Green Wave so far this season. Tulane is riding a five game win streak with two of their best wins of the year to close out non-conference play: a road win at Alabama and a home beatdown of Wofford. Josh Davis is leading the conference in scoring and adding a ton of rebounds on the side. And... even after a slow first half, Davis likes to do stuff like this:
Tulane has a ton of momentum right now. They respond to slow starts with a dominant second halves, consistently finding a way to win. Tulane will have a chance to prove itself with a home opener against UTEP on Wednesday.
1. Memphis (10-3; W10 - 1st). Memphis is still the top dog in the conference. In short, they haven't given up anything in December. The Tigers successfully dominated a slew of mid-majors before capping off its non-conference season with a solid victory over Tennessee on national TV last night. Until Tulane or Southern Miss can show it can beat the Tigers, Memphis will retain its spot in the driver's seat. With early games against ECU, UAB, and Rice, it seems Memphis won't see a big game until its Jan. 22 matchup with the Green Wave. And while Tulane has dominated with Josh Davis at forward, Memphis's Joe Jackson is the best guard in the conference with a knack for coming up big in vital games (23 against Louisville and 21 against Tennessee).
That's what I'm seeing at the moment. Let me know on the
Fear the Wave Facebook if you have thoughts/disagreements.
