Showing posts with label tanner lee. Show all posts
Showing posts with label tanner lee. Show all posts
Green Wave fans, Homecoming is upon us. In 48 hours, the 6-3 Memphis Tigers will be entering Yulman Stadium with the hopes of spoiling a Tulane Homecoming. 

 Here to break it down in "Know Your Enemy" is John Martin, a columnist for ESPN 92.9 who specializes in all things Memphis Tigers. 

 He was cool enough to take some questions over email after covering the Memphis Tigers' big matchup with Christian Brothers University on the hardwood last night.

 Give John a follow on Twitter, and you can read his column on Memphis here.

 Let's see what the Tigers are thinking.

Q: This season has certainly shaped up to be an interesting year for the Tigers. For one, they haven't been to a bowl game since 2008. On top of that, they were picked to finish 7th -- behind UConn, SMU, and USF -- in the preseason media poll. What were the expectations of Memphis fans coming into this year? 

 This being Justin Fuente’s third year, I think Memphis fans expected to see more wins this season. There wasn’t a quarterback competition — Paxton Lynch locked it up — and the defense, particularly stout last season, was returning mostly everyone. Maybe a portion talked themselves into six wins, with home games against UConn and South Florida to end the year. But nobody expected this. 

 Nobody expected to go toe-to-toe with UCLA and Ole Miss for three quarters. Nobody expected to have the chance to win nine games and the American Athletic Conference championship. In a Tiger fan’s wildest of dreams, that scenario wasn’t on the table.


Q: Memphis is on a nice run since their bye, obliterating SMU and Tulsa by a combined score of 88-30, and then following with a solid win on the road at Temple. How much fire do the Tigers have right now after those wins and gaining bowl eligibility? 

 It’s a huge deal to be bowl eligible at Memphis, as you know. That hasn’t happened since 2008. Even Justin Fuente, a notoriously understated fellow, let himself celebrate after Jake Elliott’s game-winning field goal went through. People don’t realize how bad a shape the program was in when Fuente took over; they were low on scholarships, low on talent, low on attendance and low on hope. 
But Fuente, by way of not missing in recruiting and sharp evaluating, has this thing rolling, and Memphis is gonna have to find the resources to keep him from bolting in the offseason. With the AAC title still mathematically possible, the key for Memphis is to obviously not be satisfied with six wins.

 Q: Senior running back Brandon Hayes has been very solid with a 200 yard and three touchdown game against Tulsa and a 5.1 YPC average on the season. With Tulane's defensive strength in producing turnovers, what do you envision the Tigers' offensive game plan will look like?

  I don’t really expect Memphis to change its game plan; the Tigers have been pretty balanced all season long. They’re reasonably better at running the ball, with Hayes and possibly Sam Craft returning from injury this weekend, but Lynch has accounted for 18 total touchdowns this season, too. So I suspect it’ll be, as it has all season long, a healthy mix of run and pass.

 Q: Rick Ross made an appearance at the FedEx Forum for Josh Pastner at Memphis Madness. Has the football program thought about bringing in the big guns for this road trip?

  I think Rick Ross took up their entertainer budget for the year.

  Q: Tulane's offense has been inconsistent at times due to a dangerous combination of youth as well as injuries at quarterback, running back, and receiver. How do you think Memphis will stack up on defense to Tanner Lee's offense?

 Memphis’ defense, when at full strength, is tough to handle. The Tigers have ball-hawking defensive backs like Bobby McCain and Chris Morley and they’ve got a havoc-wreaking defensive lineman in Martin Ifedi. There just aren’t many weak links in the Memphis defense, and they thrive off of causing mistakes.

 Q: While I am sure Tigers fans are gearing up for those heralded Memphis vs. Tulane matchups in basketball, do you see a strong contingent of Tigers making the drip down to Yulman? 

  You know, that’s an interesting question. It’d all depend on the hotel availability, which doesn’t seem ideal this weekend with the Saints in town. Maybe a few hundred?

  Q: If you were given the choice for a world where Coach Calipari stays for the 2009 Memphis season but Memphis football could not reach bowl eligibility until 2025, do you take the deal? 

  2025 is a long time, man. And that season would’ve been vacated anyway, probably.

  Q: Prediction for the game on Saturday? 

  Let’s go 31-14, Memphis. (Sorry, Tulane. New day.)


The Tulane Green Wave is coming off a remarkable 31-24 victory over Houston last weekend with a big-time matchup against the Memphis Tigers on the way.

I'll be publishing an interview with an expert on Memphis football tomorrow for my "Know Your Enemy" piece, but with three games remaining this season, I couldn't help but think: what is this year going to look like?

Saturday will be a big factor. Memphis -- like Houston -- is fighting for the top spot in the American Conference. Tulane will be an 11 point underdog, which will shock no one, when they enter Yulman Stadium on Saturday.

Thinking about our chances, I have been getting really into the Football Outsiders website, which specializes in advanced stats for college football. If you're into that sort of think, you'll probably dig this post. If math isn't your thing, I'd probably use this as a jumping off point.

Memphis at Tulane: 

 While the conventional wisdom was that this season would come down to UCF vs. Cincinnati vs. East Carolina, that has not been the case. Memphis has already thrown a wrench in that dynamic with a single in-conference loss so far this year.

Memphis is a damn good football team. They took UCLA to the wire on the Bruins' field, and then hung with a very talented Ole Miss team into the fourth quarter in the Liberty Bowl. But how good are they?

Using the F/+ formula of Football Outsiders, which rates teams on the basis of offensive, defensive, and special teams performance excluding garbage time and garbage drives, here's a quick preview of Saturday:

Tulane Green Wave [3-6]: 

  1. Ranking: 99th out of 128 in FBS 
  2. Offensive Ranking: 92nd 
  3. Defensive Ranking: 63rd 
  4. Special Teams: 126th 
  5. F/+ Rating: -14.5% 
Memphis Tigers [6-3]: 
  1. Ranking: 45th out of 128 in FBS 
  2. Offensive Ranking: 75th 
  3. Defensive Ranking: 46th 
  4. Special Teams: 2nd 
  5. F/+ Rating: 6.1% 
A couple things pop out immediately. For one, as you can see in the full ranking, Memphis is the highest rated team in the American Conference. The Tigers, through this week, have been on par with the likes of Texas A&M, Texas, and the University of Florida. That is a big time college football team. 

While both teams boast a serious strength on defensive with relatively low-ranked offenses through this week, you will notice the discrepancy at special teams: Memphis being ranked second in the country to Tulane, ranked second to last. 

Interesting, but still 6.1% vs. -14.5% in a F/+ rating? What does that actually mean in terms of the football game that is about to be played. 

An Underdog Story: 

SB Nation writer Bill Connelly writes a pretty cool blog called Football Study Hall, which is worth checking out if you like this sort of thing. 

Unfortunately, they do awesome projections for the power conferences but the AAC doesn't get any love. 

My question this week was how meaningful the difference between Memphis and Tulane in their play so far this year should be as a factor in projecting who wins this game. After tweeting at Bill, they do not publish their algorithm for how they turn the F/+ ratings into pretty impressive predictions for win probabilities, so I decided to try to do it myself. 

Using this college football season as a data set, in games so far between teams with a margin of F/+ ratings between 19 and 20 points, the favorite won about 96.8% of the time. If we played a game like that 100 times, you would expect the underdog to win about three of those times. 

Does It Matter? 

Depends who you ask. The ratings tend to be pretty solid. If you are picking games straight up using the F/+ ratings, you would be right about 78% of the time (it's a little tougher in projecting beating the spread, so that's a whole other conversation). 

A relevant factor that we don't pick up from these numbers is that a team trending upward is obviously desirable when you need one to beat the odds, even if the chance of victory is fairly small. 

I think Tulane fits that profile as much as any team can. For one, reports from practice this week indicate that not only has Tulane seen a couple key components coming back online after injury, but quarterback Tanner Lee is starting to hit his peak. 
That's a good sign. I'd be remiss if I didn't mention that the Tulane offensive unit -- which along with the special teams -- really anchors the Green Wave down in such ratings has been forced to evolve in some pretty absurd ways.

Does the trajectory of the offense under Nick Montana, which slowed to a crawl as the team tried to minimize risk against UConn and UCF, have anything to do with where the offense is right now?

Is the fact that 70% of the yardage Tulane has put up offensively has been produced by freshman a factor in that each game is basically multiplying the amount of experience this team has?

It's very possible. Tulane will be able to choose its own fate on Saturday playing in front of a sold-out crowd against the toughest team in its league.

If the Green Wave can survive this one again, it will be a huge statement not only to the development of this team but also to its viability against East Carolina and Temple, which on paper will prove to be easier games.

Predicting the Other AAC Matchups:

 Thursday: 

 East Carolina at Cincinnati: This one is extremely close on paper. Ranked 57th to 64th respectively, I have East Carolina with a 53% win probability. This is going to be a toss-up.

Saturday: 

 Tulsa at UCF: Huge disparity between these two teams. UCF playing at home will have a 98.5% chance of beating the Tulsa Golden Hurricane to stay in the AAC contender race.

Temple at Penn State: Temple will head to Penn State after a tough loss by a field goal to Memphis. The Owls should lose this one but have a 31% win probability, so they may be able to find some magic on the road.

USF at SMU: Both of these teams are considered the worst 15 squads in the country, but the Mustangs are putting up some historic numbers in their badness. USF will have an 81% win probability for this one on the road.


 It's been a good week in the Tulane sports world. On Saturday night, the Green Wave shocked AAC fans when they took down a strong Houston team while spoiling their Homecoming in the process.

In the wake of that victory -- and with our own Homecoming on the horizon this week -- Tulane players racked up some nice individual awards.

Leading the pack, Parry Nickerson, who responded to a near ejection by intercepting the ball on two critical fourth quarter plays, was named American Athletic Conference Defensive Player of the Week by the AAC as well as Defensive Player Honors for the Louisiana Sports Writers Association.

Forgot one important fact. Nickerson, who is now third in the country in interceptions, is a red-shirt freshman.

Fellow freshmen Tanner Lee and Dontrell Hilliard also were named, alongside Nickerson, to the AAC Weekly Honor Roll.

The future of this team is strong, and the young guns keep bringing it.

Happy Homecoming, and Beat Memphis.

Sept. 17, 2011. That was the date of the last Tulane road victory outside of the state of Louisiana. In this millennium, the word that has defined Tulane has been: struggle.

That has never been more true over the past decade than on the road, where wins were few and far between.

The narrative this week was that this team was done.

With a road trip to the Houston Cougars, favored by a full 18 points by the folks in Vegas, many believed this team was headed for another disappointment.

Instead, the Green Wave produced what was hands down the most impressive win of the Curtis Johnson era. Houston was no joke. With a victory, they were set to clinch bowl eligibility for another year and regain control of the American Conference atop the AAC standings.
Tulane jumped out to an early lead with a Tanner Lee touchdown following an interception of the first quarter. In the end, the Green Wave went wire-to-wire, controlling the momentum for nearly the entire game.

The only exception: two minutes of disaster at the end of the first half, when a Tulane fumble bobbled into the end zone, and the Cougars snagged it for a TD. 14-14. On the next drive, with Tanner Lee taking his offense down the field, an interception on third down set up a field goal, allowing the Cougars to head to the end zone with a 17-14 lead.

Tulane has struggled to put together complete games this year. There's no question about it. Until today, the Green Wave had never reclaimed a lead in a game where they were trailing.
They did today. Tanner Lee immediately responded by throwing his third touchdown of the day against the #4 pass defense in the country.
Just a great throw and a solid catch on that fade route.

Now the game looked all but over in the fourth quarter. With less than 9 minutes remained, CB Parry Nickerson grabbed an interception, bringing his total for the year to five.

We just had to wait for the clock to strike zero. However, Houston managed to put together one good drive in the half, and scored with less than 2:00 remaining. Now here is where it gets sticky.

Down by one touchdown, Houston goes for the onside kick. A Cougar blatantly crosses the line before the kick, a seemingly obvious offsides call. Tulane bumbles the ball, and Houston recovers, but a flag is on the field for the offsides.

The AAC official chose to pick up the laundry, and the fumble recovery was good. Curtis Johnson was incensed. Houston proceeded to move down the field to the red zone, within yards of the house on 4th down and the game on the line.

Parry Nickerson, who was nearly ejected in the first quarter, made a game saving interception for his team. Tulane won on the road outside its state for the first time since 2011. They did it against a defense ranked higher than LSU. And they did it, most importantly, with no excuses.
Great game. Beat Memphis. It's Homecoming.

Happy Halloween, y'all. It is Tulane Gameday. At 7 PM, the Cincinnati Bearcats will make their first-ever appearance in Yulman Stadium in a crucial in-conference matchup. 

The Bearcats are 4-3 on the year and will enter riding a two-game winning streak. Tulane had a week off to allow star running back Sherman Badie to heal up and for freshman Tanner Lee to get back in the mix. 

I had a chance to interview Scott over at the Bearcats Blog. You can find them on Twitter here too. Here's what we learned. 

1. We now know Gunner Kiel is officially in for Friday instead of Munchie Legaux (who went to Karr on the Westbank in New Orleans). With his rib injury against USF, do you see Gunner being limited at all, or should the offense be back at 100%? 

 Kiel has battled the rib injury ever since the third game of the season at Ohio State. He's a very tough kid. He's also been knocked out of a couple of games since. That's a little worrisome. I'm of the mind that Kiel shouldn't start and only play a "In case of fire, break glass," role, but I'm not the coach. Kiel is great. He's going to throw deep, he's going to throw short and he's going to just make any throw he wants because he's incredibly talented. We've seen him tear apart most of the secondaries UC has faced. 

2. This is obviously a weird year in the world of the AAC with some new teams coming on board, but Cincinnati was the #1 pick in the preseason. After losing that three game stretch against Ohio State, in-conference Memphis, and the U, do you feel like the Bearcats have regained their momentum? How's the fan base handling this season in Cinci? 

 That's a tough question to answer. The Bearcats have bounced back on the scoreboard with a couple of lopsided wins. Those wins have come against Southern Methodist and South Florida, teams who hold up the southern part of the standings. They are two of the dirt worst teams in the nation. Tulane isn't thought of much better, sorry!, so even a huge win here wouldn't answer a ton of concerns.

 The defense has been a huge issue for the Cats this season and is one of the 30 or so worst in the nation. They have feasted on SMU and South Florida. The Bearcats have picked off 4 passes the last two weeks after having two all season to that point. The Cats have taken away opposing run games, something they didn't do to OSU, Memphis or Miami, and forced the awful quarterbacks to make plays. If you know anything about SMU and USF, those quarterback situations are a mess.

Cincinnati's running game has given the offense balance the last couple weeks as well. The UC QBs ran for over a combined 100 yards against SMU and freshman running back Mike Boone had over 200 yards last week. Again, the competition is a major point but the results are positive. 

Cincinnati has turned a bit of a corner. I say that with some optimism and some reserve because we really won't know until the Cats play East Carolina. Double sorry, Tulane fans reading this. 

3. We're a little shocked to be a 2.5 point underdog to Cinci, especially since the Green Wave was a 20 point dog to UCF in the last matchup. What's your prediction for the matchup this week? 

 I'm a bit surprised the spread was that low too. Cincinnati was only 13.5 and 10 point favorites to SMU and USF. Vegas does not believe in the Bearcats. Memphis opened as a 24ish point favorite at SMU for some comparison. I thought some of it was because of Kiel's status, but even now it's a 4 point spread. Cincinnati is ranked 75 on the Football Outsider S&P rankings, Tulane 101. Just off that, you would think that the Bearcats would be a bigger favorite, even on the road.

My prediction is going to be a blowout (sorry again). Cincinnati has proven one thing under Tommy Tuberville and it's that they can wipe the floor with the bottom of the league, USF excluded. The games against the top teams are a different question. Maybe Tulane gets the Bearcats to play the same type of terrible offense that the Green Wave were able to force Central Florida into a couple weeks ago. Making the game incredibly ugly is Tulane's only shot in my book. 

 I just don't think they'll be able to pull it off for 60 minutes. UC was pushed to the limit by an awful Miami Ohio squad, so anything could happen. Still see a blowout. Something like Cincinnati 34 Tulane 13.

4. With a sophomore linebacker picking up another run-in with Johnny Law this week, is Tommy Tuberville starting to see some distractions for the team with the legal incidents, or do you not expect that to be much of a factor against this opponent? 

 Sadly, Cincinnati has faced this problem as recently as last week. It sounds like Marcus Tappan, the player arrested, is going to have a long road back to getting on the field, if he ever gets on the field at Cincinnati. I think arrests are more of a public perception problem than on the field problem. I doubt FSU is going to be too distracted by the fact their starting running back is involved in whatever the hell he's involved in. There are bigger things to worry about, like the opponent. You can't stroll into Tulane and be distracted. That's how you walk home with a loss.

I hope ending this with a compliment of Tulane has endeared me to the readers. You'll be better soon. Just not this year in any sports that matter. But one day.

The Tulane Green Wave earned its first American Conference victory ever by beating the UConn Huskies 12-3 in a home victory.

Here are the key takeaways:

1. This was important. UConn is not a great team, or even an average team, but they are a team. In our conference. As their hometown paper remarked, "Both teams need a win. Badly." Tulane was the team that survived today.

2. Nick Montana earned a W. The son of Joe started 11-games last year in a season that ended in a bowl berth. Losing the starting job to Tanner Lee in camp couldn't have been a great feeling, but Nick stayed with the program and had a chance to lead tonight.

The word that came to mind was efficiency. Arm strength has always been the challenge for Montana, but he delivered a series of effective throws on short routes to keep drives alive. He didn't cough the ball up or sustain as many sacks as he regularly did last year. All in all, great game for a third stringer coming in for his first start of the year, right?

3. Anthony DiRocco put one through the uprights. From the right hashmark in the fourth quarter, DiRocco helped to extend the Tulane lead in a close game. He wasn't a liability, and he took care of a tough but critical kick. It's too soon to tell whether the Cairo Santos visit will be a turning point for his season, but tonight was the first solid game he has had in a Tulane jersey.

4. Defense had swag tonight. The Tulane defense has been a bit of a surprise this year given sky high hopes entering the season.

The unit showed up tonight. Three turnovers --- two of which ended with a Darion Monroe recovery --- let us attain a +3 turnover margin this game. This was highlighted by a safety after a bad run call on the 1 yard line for UConn. Defense produced offense tonight.

5. Yulman Stadium remains undefeated as a venue in night games. It's also 2-1 all-time with the lone loss to #22 Georgia Tech.

Tulane will head back on the road to face UCF in Orlando, FL next week.


It isn't often you can can look at a 47-13 loss and think that the teams were somewhat evenly matched, but to the fans who watched the matchup today, that feeling is tough to forget.

In the defeat, Tulane produced 375 yards of offense to Duke's 437. Not exactly the kind of line you would expect in a 34 point loss. So what happened?

1. Duke Never Lost Control 

 If there is a reason to walk away frustrated after a game like this, it's because of the many flashes the Green Wave showed today. While the defense looked outmatched in the first series of the game when Duke ran for an easy touchdown, Tanner Lee and the Gang responded with a crisp, professional drive to the end zone to make the game 7-7.

Another touchdown later, Tulane was snapping the ball over the punter's head to hand the Blue Devils a safety and make the game 16-7.

When the teams came back from the half, a Duke received uncharacteristically beat Lorenzo Doss almost immediately for a huge game and to set up another touchdown. This is where we're all thinking it's about to go down the tubes, but the Green Wave responds with a critical touchdown.

That's where things got crazy. First, Tulane committed a false start on the extra point and then followed with a wide left extra point attempt.

Then the defense put together a great stand, looking extremely hungry and bringing up the stop with a three and out (which almost was ended by an interception). However, a Duke punt led to a Tulane fumble, and the Blue Devils controlled the game from that point forward.

2. Special Teams are a Nightmare 

 Advocate beat writer Scott Kushner has been the Chicken Little in this regard for months now, but the special teams situation in Uptown is an absolute disaster.

As you can see in the kick above, we're struggling with basically anything that involves putting a foot on a ball.

It got worse though. As the game was out of reach, a dropped Tulane snap led to Peter Piccerelli trying to make a run for it. That wasn't that bad, though the conventional wisdom is to hit the deck.

As he went down, the ball came out, and Tulane managed to retrieve it. At that point, you can see what happens next.

3. In better news, Lazedrick Thompson killed it. 

 Thompson had his best game of the season, by far. On top of the 124 yards he put up, he was a reliable runner on virtually every competent Tulane drive this game. When they needed yards, Thompson was able to step up for it.

While it would have been great to see the "thunder and lightning" running back combo with freshman standout Sherman Badie, Badie entered the game a bit banged up and listed as questionable to play. The run game, by far was the strength of the offense today.

4. Tanner Lee Struggles with Location 

 It's important to remember that Tanner Lee is a freshman, and Duke is a good team with a defense that was able to put pressure on Johnny Football last season during bowl season.

Unfortunately, Tanner was not able to find his rhythm today and coughed up three turnovers, including one in the first half that killed the team's momentum after a strong drive to the end zone.

The final line: 14/35, 160 yards, 3 interceptions, 0 TD

5. Some Perspective Though 

 Especially after the strong start last year, it's easy to be disappointed in the 1-3 start to this season, especially with the historic opening of Yulman Stadium.

That said, the combined record of the three teams Tulane lost to is now 9-2. Both Georgia Tech and Duke are both undefeated and in position to contend for their conference's title this year.

Unlike previous season, Tulane's schedule is clearly front-loaded, with a few other extremely challenging matchups in the late season (circle East Carolina, because the Pirates are going to be looking for revenge after last year).

With a trip to Rutgers this week, Tulane will have a good shot to bounce back and built some momentum.

6. FearTheWave.com Prediction Review: Duke 42, Tulane 17 

 Came pretty close on this one. Like I said, the 47-13 final score is not reflective of how the first three quarters looked, when the teams had a good chance to trade blows. When the train was off the rails, the Blue Devils put up two more touchdowns with a Tanner Lee pick six and the crazy play off the botched punt you saw above.

Once again, the Green Wave showed flashes of its tremendous upside but was bogged down by turnovers, unnecessary penalties, and a truly struggling special teams unit.

Well here we are, folks. It's time. The Tulane Green Wave, who were last seen in an inspiring comeback in the second half of the New Orleans Bowl --- stymied only by a failed field goal attempt to end the game --- are back in action for the 2014 season.

The American Conference may be a new league, but the Green Wave faces an old foe in the Tulsa Golden Hurricane. That's right. Tulsa. Another Conference USA gone Power Six export.

But to say it's an old rivalry would be inaccurate. From 1968 until 2012, the Green Wave had won a grand total of zero games in this series.

Last year, however, Tulane notched a historic victory for the first time in over 40 years that made the team bowl eligible. It was a big deal. It symbolized new hope for a program that had been devastated by real hurricanes, administrative issues, and yes, some serious football issues.

The stakes are just as high this year. You would have to look back to the 1990s to think of another time when the passion and optimism of the Green Wave fan base has reached this level.

In the offseason, Head Coach Curtis Johnson made waves after signing every target on National Signing Day, and as a bonus, locking down a ton of local talent from the Louisiana recruiting base.

But today is the day that the team gets a chance to realize the huge expectations for this season. Here are the storylines.

Game Time: 7 PM CST
TV: CBS Sports Network. Check your local listing. 
Betting Line: Tulsa -6.5 

1. Freshman QB 

 Coming out of camp, one of the bigger stories has been the success of redshirt freshman Tanner Lee. The New Orleans Jesuit product has impressed pretty much anyone watching with impressive arm strength and his ability to make the offense more dynamic.

As a result, he became the clear starter over Nick Montana and Devin Powell, who both started in games in the 2013 campaign.

While it was widely reported that Lee would be the first freshman QB to start opening day in history, one of my Twitter followers pointed out he's actually the second.
Still, crazy, right? Lee's ability to manage this offense will be a critical part of keeping pace with the Golden Hurricane tonight.

2. Defense, Defense, Defense 

 Yes, the defense is really good. Obviously in the off-season, the Green Wave lost some key contributors to graduation (especially Davenport), but they return a very strong core highlighted by Lorenzo Doss who made pretty much every pre-season watch list in existence, Royce LaFrance (who led the team in sacks), Nico Marley (who won Conference USA freshman of the year), and Sam Scofield, who led the team in tackles. Pretty solid, right?

The term "mid-major Michigan State" has been thrown around, and it's fitting. The Green Wave defense will look to build on the success of last season.

How much pressure can they bring tonight to hold the Golden Hurricane back like they did last year?

3. #18 

 Devon Walker is returning to the site of his tragic injury, which occurred against Tulsa two years ago. He will make an appearance at halftime in front of the Tulsa crowd. Go Devon go!

Devon graduated from Tulane in the spring and is pursuing a graduate degree right now.

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